Valuation Does Matter

As I am penning this note at 2:45 pm on 13th March 2024, Markets have corrected by 1.50% in Large Caps and by almost 5% in Small Caps and 4% in Mid Caps. These tables will look quite different if I would have incorporated data based on today’s market corrections. But I did not wish to wait till tomorrow to release this note for the benefit of the readers and investors. Market Regulator has cracked down on some of the operators in Small Cap space and given warning to AMCs to take corrective steps so that Investors do not suffer due to froth building up in this pace. Many AMCs have stopped inflows in their Small and Mid Cap schemes based on this. This causing further panic and adding fuel to fire.


MisterBond’s Momentum SIP – another revolutionary idea from MisterBond

Investors select schemes for SIPs based on past performance, time horizons, and risk appetites. They choose equity categories like BAF, Large Caps, Mid Caps, Small Caps, and Flexi Caps. Top-performing schemes tend to perform poorly over the next three years, but investors continue to invest in these schemes for long-term goals. Investors often stop SIPs in underperforming schemes and restart in well-performing ones, causing a cycle of changing lanes. MisterBond has devised a unique ranking model which ranks schemes based on rolling returns analysis over past 6 months, 1 year and 3 years – which takes into account not only consistency of performance but also momentum of recent past performances as well.

Off Topic

Reality of Amrit Kal - Is India Totally Decoupled from Global Factors?

Fed paused rate hikes in their last FOMC meet. Inflation is reducing. Markets are taking a cue from this and getting back to Risk On mode. Wall Street has been publishing scores of bulilish stock market out look for 2024. Analysts expect lower inflation, lower interest rates, resilient consumers and strong returns for big Tech. So far, we have seen disinflation, mainly driven by supply side with a big post pandemic rebound in production and productivity. What will be a worry in 2024 is demand side story – which is not as rosy as what people are expecting. And that is bad disinflation.


3 Investment Themes for FY 2024 and Why?

I had posted a Tweet a few days back, wherein I had suggested that FY 2024 same 3 Asset Classes will do well which did well in FY 2023 as well viz. Gold, Debt and Asset Allocation: My Reasons for the same:


Is India Decoupled from rest of the World

We have been listening to the narratives of how Indian markets are more resilient than other global markets. How Indian Equity markets have fallen the least among other emerging markets as well as the strength of INR vis a vis other global currencies v/s Dollars. Is it prudent to think that India will be insulated from Global deteriorating Macro and Geo-Political factors and carve a different path of its own? Click above to read more


FT Winding Up Saga – The Conclusion – All’s Well that Ends Well

I had penned 3 articles on the captioned subject and done innumerable Social Media interactions through Twitter and LinkedIn and given my thoughts, observations and suggestions – only keeping in mind the best interests of the Investors at heart. What I had said on the very first day post winding up, how things panned out a year later and finally showcasing on how – what I had predicted in terms of outcomes – have all come true: It was a very difficult chapter in the history of Mutual Fund Industry. Not only from the Investors point of view – whose funds were stuck when they needed them the most during lock down due to COVID but also for various different reasons as well.



Now let me talk about the lessons learnt in point format first and then elaborate on each of the points: 1. Do not Panic 2. Apply Common Sense and Logic 3. Do not get swayed by negativity 4. Be consistent in your Message 5. Have Patience 6. Show solidarity and unity among the Market participants; especially among AMCs and MFDs 7. Trust the pedigree of the AMC and the Fund Manager in question Now let me elaborate on each point:


Add New Dimension to Your Multi Asset Allocation

As I am writing this note, NIFTY has scaled 17,857 and Sensex has scaled 59,985 (as on October 28'2021). No one in their wildest imagination would have thought of such stupendous rallies in some of the Asset Classes since the outbreak of COVID19 in March 2020. March 2020 was a month of Doom and Gloom and most experts had predicted very long recession from thereon. October 2021 is the time to relook at your Asset Allocation with a magnifying glass and look to reallocate some of your client investments to align with current market valuations in different asset classes. Multi Asset theme which has started becoming popular is the way going forward as well.


Curious case of NIFTY50 Scaling New Highs & NIFTY50 PE Cooling Off

Of late I have noticed that NIFTY50 has been scaling new highs but its PE (Consolidated Trailing 12 months) has come off significantly. It is also reflecting in my Algo number and the Equity band it recommends - from 0% in Equity, it is now showing 30% equity allocation in Equity in rising markets. This got me thinking and did my own research with inputs from an explanatory note circulated by DSP Mutual Fund (when Market PEs were changed from Stand Alone basis to Consolidated basis -will write more on this as well) and inputs from Mr. Manuj Jain, Senior Product Specialist at ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund.

Debt Funds

1st Year Anniversary - Post Franklin Templeton Saga

Today, I wish to go down the memory lane of this past 1 year and put things in perspective – this entire saga for the benefit of not only the affected Investors; but for all in the Mutual Fund Industry. This can then work as a guide for the Mutual Fund Industry at large.