posted on 28 December 2016 by Sunil Jhaveri
Sensex levels on January 01’2016 was: 26161. Sensex on December 26’2016: 26040. Last 52 week high was 29,045 as on September 08’2016. In short, with a Roller Coaster Ride, Sensex delivered practically no returns in 2016. However, if an investor would have invested through Asset Reallocation strategy either through say MisterBond’s Algo or a scheme like Motilal Oswal Dynamic Equity scheme or ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund; returns would have been on the positive side of approx. 5-6 % p.a. How does this happen & why does this happen? My own Algo has shown allocation of only 40% in Equity over past 9 quarters starting from January 2015. Does this mean that Asset Rebalancing schemes have remained static throughout this last one year period & no movement happens in these Rebalancing schemes?
posted on 01 January 2016 by Sunil Jhaveri
Equity markets follow Business Cycles. Over past 9 years, Sensex has delivered only 4-5% CAGR. Business Cycle & Markets were at their peak during 2007-2008 period; which came to an abrupt halt due to Global Financial crisis of 2008. Market cycle just reversed thereafter & has not recovered so far in terms of Global growth or even India Growth story. Our IIP numbers are dismal, Corporate Earnings growth have not been robust, and inflation was at an all-time high till 2013-14. Couple of bad years of monsoon also did not help matters. Though Equity markets are looking expensive in the context of PE Multiples (almost 21-23 on Sensex & NIFTY); one factor that can change or rerate the same is improving corporate earnings. When the denominator of PE Formula (Market Price/EPS) viz. EPS will improve, automatically market PE will get rerated & will come down due to improving Earnings Growth going forward. Currently, Public Sector capex & spending has started; which will be followed by the Capex
posted on 19 February 2015 by Sunil Jhaveri
There is huge opportunity for all IFAs to start providing solution for retirement cash flow requirements & move funds from traditional mindset. Also, this strategy helps 2 generations of investors viz. a) retired senior citizens to meet their daily cash flow requirements during their lifetime alongwith an opportunity to grow their corpus (v/s eroding the same in terms of purchasing power due to impact of inflation – as explained in my first note) & enjoy their GOLDEN YEARS & b) benefit the beneficiaries by letting investments grow over a period of time.
posted on 19 January 2015 by Sunil Jhaveri
As soon as someone retires, first choice of investment is Fixed Deposits. Argument in favor of this investment vehicle is a) safety of principal & b) generation of regular cash flows. However, what the retired person fails to take into account is the impact of inflation on their principal amount & reinvestment risk (every time FD matures & gets repriced at interest rates prevailing at that time). Like currently, post rate cut (& prospective rate cuts in future) Bank FDs will be generating lower & lower returns to the investors & hence has reinvestment risk attached to it.