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Diversification - the new Buzz Word
posted on 26 September 2024 by Sunil Jhaveri
DIVERSIFICATION is the buzz word in investing world. This word connotes different meaning to different investors. What are different ways of diversifications and what diversification can add value to an investor’s portfolio
Post Fed Rate cut can Financials be the new Defensive Play?
posted on 19 September 2024 by Sunil Jhaveri
Post most rate cuts and Fed pivot, history has shown that there have been recessions and major drawdowns in markets. In 2001, NIFTY fell 35%, in 2007, it went up initially to drop 60% thereafter in 2008. Currently domestic demand is soft and valuations are stretched. So far, Indian market rally has been broad based. All segments like Large, Mid and Small Caps have performed well. Now, it is time to be cautious and use a FUNNEL (Top Down) to filter where to invest. Also, there should be rotational change in both Market Caps and Sectors.
Signals given by some of the Asset Classes for the US Economy
posted on 02 September 2024 by Sunil Jhaveri
Some of the asset classes which are leading indicators of market macros are: Dollar Index / 10 Year UST / Gold/ Nasdaq Composite. 3 out of 4 have made decisive moves – 10 Year UST and Gold on the upside and dollar index on the downside. Only one which is hovering in a narrow range is Nasdaq Composite which will, in all probability make its decisive downward move once rate cuts happen and recession sets in thereafter.
Time to Look Beyond Equities
posted on 23 August 2024 by Sunil Jhaveri
There is all together another story brewing in different global economies, especially in the biggest economy viz. the USA. Post COVID, to avoid recession, US Govt and Fed started printing money and resorted to aggressive fiscal stimulus that created inflation in different asset classes like equities, real estate, cryptos and inflation in general. To control this spiraling inflation, Fed had to resort to aggressive rate hikes from near zero to 5% + in a short span of 12 to 18 months. Spiraling US debt + high interest costs have now come to haunt the US economy. During the same period there have been many wars in different parts of the world like Ukraine/Russia & middle eastern region.
Suggestions for Big - Bold GST Reforms
posted on 31 July 2024 by Sunil Jhaveri
Recent data on government revenue sources has unveiled a striking disparity in India's tax system. While income tax constitutes a significant 19% of government revenues, only a small fraction of India's population contributes to this substantial portion. This revelation necessitates a critical examination of the current fiscal structure and its far-reaching implications for the nation's economic growth and social equity.
Suggestions for Big - Bold Tax Reforms
posted on 30 July 2024 by Sunil Jhaveri
Recent data on government revenue sources has unveiled a striking disparity in India's tax system. While income tax constitutes a significant 19% of government revenues, only a small fraction of India's population contributes to this substantial portion. This revelation necessitates a critical examination of the current fiscal structure and its far-reaching implications for the nation's economic growth and social equity.
Valuation Does Matter
posted on 13 March 2024 by Sunil Jhaveri
As I am penning this note at 2:45 pm on 13th March 2024, Markets have corrected by 1.50% in Large Caps and by almost 5% in Small Caps and 4% in Mid Caps. These tables will look quite different if I would have incorporated data based on today’s market corrections. But I did not wish to wait till tomorrow to release this note for the benefit of the readers and investors. Market Regulator has cracked down on some of the operators in Small Cap space and given warning to AMCs to take corrective steps so that Investors do not suffer due to froth building up in this pace. Many AMCs have stopped inflows in their Small and Mid Cap schemes based on this. This causing further panic and adding fuel to fire.
MisterBond’s Momentum SIP – another revolutionary idea from MisterBond
posted on 16 February 2024 by Sunil Jhaveri
Investors select schemes for SIPs based on past performance, time horizons, and risk appetites. They choose equity categories like BAF, Large Caps, Mid Caps, Small Caps, and Flexi Caps. Top-performing schemes tend to perform poorly over the next three years, but investors continue to invest in these schemes for long-term goals. Investors often stop SIPs in underperforming schemes and restart in well-performing ones, causing a cycle of changing lanes. MisterBond has devised a unique ranking model which ranks schemes based on rolling returns analysis over past 6 months, 1 year and 3 years – which takes into account not only consistency of performance but also momentum of recent past performances as well.
Reality of Amrit Kal - Is India Totally Decoupled from Global Factors?
posted on 22 November 2023 by Sunil Jhaveri
Fed paused rate hikes in their last FOMC meet. Inflation is reducing. Markets are taking a cue from this and getting back to Risk On mode. Wall Street has been publishing scores of bulilish stock market out look for 2024. Analysts expect lower inflation, lower interest rates, resilient consumers and strong returns for big Tech. So far, we have seen disinflation, mainly driven by supply side with a big post pandemic rebound in production and productivity. What will be a worry in 2024 is demand side story – which is not as rosy as what people are expecting. And that is bad disinflation.
3 Investment Themes for FY 2024 and Why?
posted on 10 April 2023 by Sunil Jhaveri
I had posted a Tweet a few days back, wherein I had suggested that FY 2024 same 3 Asset Classes will do well which did well in FY 2023 as well viz. Gold, Debt and Asset Allocation: My Reasons for the same:
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