Off Topic

Reality of Amrit Kal - Is India Totally Decoupled from Global Factors?

Fed paused rate hikes in their last FOMC meet. Inflation is reducing. Markets are taking a cue from this and getting back to Risk On mode. Wall Street has been publishing scores of bulilish stock market out look for 2024. Analysts expect lower inflation, lower interest rates, resilient consumers and strong returns for big Tech. So far, we have seen disinflation, mainly driven by supply side with a big post pandemic rebound in production and productivity. What will be a worry in 2024 is demand side story – which is not as rosy as what people are expecting. And that is bad disinflation.


3 Investment Themes for FY 2024 and Why?

I had posted a Tweet a few days back, wherein I had suggested that FY 2024 same 3 Asset Classes will do well which did well in FY 2023 as well viz. Gold, Debt and Asset Allocation: My Reasons for the same:


Is India Decoupled from rest of the World

We have been listening to the narratives of how Indian markets are more resilient than other global markets. How Indian Equity markets have fallen the least among other emerging markets as well as the strength of INR vis a vis other global currencies v/s Dollars. Is it prudent to think that India will be insulated from Global deteriorating Macro and Geo-Political factors and carve a different path of its own? Click above to read more


FT Winding Up Saga – The Conclusion – All’s Well that Ends Well

I had penned 3 articles on the captioned subject and done innumerable Social Media interactions through Twitter and LinkedIn and given my thoughts, observations and suggestions – only keeping in mind the best interests of the Investors at heart. What I had said on the very first day post winding up, how things panned out a year later and finally showcasing on how – what I had predicted in terms of outcomes – have all come true: It was a very difficult chapter in the history of Mutual Fund Industry. Not only from the Investors point of view – whose funds were stuck when they needed them the most during lock down due to COVID but also for various different reasons as well.



Now let me talk about the lessons learnt in point format first and then elaborate on each of the points: 1. Do not Panic 2. Apply Common Sense and Logic 3. Do not get swayed by negativity 4. Be consistent in your Message 5. Have Patience 6. Show solidarity and unity among the Market participants; especially among AMCs and MFDs 7. Trust the pedigree of the AMC and the Fund Manager in question Now let me elaborate on each point:


Add New Dimension to Your Multi Asset Allocation

As I am writing this note, NIFTY has scaled 17,857 and Sensex has scaled 59,985 (as on October 28'2021). No one in their wildest imagination would have thought of such stupendous rallies in some of the Asset Classes since the outbreak of COVID19 in March 2020. March 2020 was a month of Doom and Gloom and most experts had predicted very long recession from thereon. October 2021 is the time to relook at your Asset Allocation with a magnifying glass and look to reallocate some of your client investments to align with current market valuations in different asset classes. Multi Asset theme which has started becoming popular is the way going forward as well.


Curious case of NIFTY50 Scaling New Highs & NIFTY50 PE Cooling Off

Of late I have noticed that NIFTY50 has been scaling new highs but its PE (Consolidated Trailing 12 months) has come off significantly. It is also reflecting in my Algo number and the Equity band it recommends - from 0% in Equity, it is now showing 30% equity allocation in Equity in rising markets. This got me thinking and did my own research with inputs from an explanatory note circulated by DSP Mutual Fund (when Market PEs were changed from Stand Alone basis to Consolidated basis -will write more on this as well) and inputs from Mr. Manuj Jain, Senior Product Specialist at ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund.

Debt Funds

1st Year Anniversary - Post Franklin Templeton Saga

Today, I wish to go down the memory lane of this past 1 year and put things in perspective – this entire saga for the benefit of not only the affected Investors; but for all in the Mutual Fund Industry. This can then work as a guide for the Mutual Fund Industry at large.

Debt Funds

Investors' Dilemma: "Jae to Kahan Jae?" Equity at historic High, Debt Yields at Historic Lows.

Those following Asset Allocation can only stare at erosion going forward - be it in Debt or in Equity. One strategy and scheme which is well poised to take advantage of current situation is : Axis Banking & PSU Debt Fund - which follows Constantly Rolling Down strategy. Treat it as an alternative to Liquid schemes and earn better returns than pure Liquid schemes with no Credit or Interest Rate Risk (if held till maturity) and avoid Reinvestment Risk as well. Please read on my thoughts on this Scheme

Debt Funds


PaSt couple of days, there were lots of WhatsApp forwards on how most of the Credit Scheme redemptions are met by transferring them to other schemes of the same AMC. Some concalls were also made by AMCs to quell these doubts and/or give explanations for the same. All the WhatsApp groups were only abuzz with these stories throughout the day with lot of agitated to and fro among the group members