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End or Beginning of Rally in Precious Metals?
posted on 30 April 2025 by Sunil Jhaveri
I had given a call to invest in Gold & Silver on 23rd August 2024 when Gold price was approx. $2500/oz and Silver was at 29/oz. Since then, both Gold and Silver have scaled higher; Gold having touched a new historic high of $3500/oz and Silver briefly breaching $35/oz before retracing back to their current levels of $3312/oz in Gold and $32.92/oz in Silver as on 30th April 2025. What is the way forward and is the Gold and Silver rally over? Read more to find out.
Learnings from 2024
posted on 13 January 2025 by Sunil Jhaveri
Wishing all the readers a very happy new year. Unfortunately for equity investors, beginning of 2025 has been a very bad start with NIFTY 50 correcting 1.31%, NIFTY Mid Cap 100 down by 4.99% and NIFTY Small Cap 100 down 6.93% till January 10’2025 (last Friday). As I pen this note, NIFTY 50 is down further 01.30% with Mid and Small Cap indices further down by more than 4.25% each. Let us revisit some of the articles I had written in 2024 and its impact on investor portfolios:
When should you Desist from investing in Small Caps
posted on 17 October 2024 by Sunil Jhaveri
Investors generally look at past performance and decide on where to invest. Many will look to invest at current juncture in Small & Mid Cap space & ignore investing in Large Caps. This is looking into the rearview mirror and driving your car. Naturally, if you do not think of what lies ahead and only look into the rearview mirror and drive, there will be mishaps and accidents going forward. Similarly, not taking cognizance of market valuations of different market caps and investing purely based on recent past performance (RECENCY BIAS), investors will meet with major mishaps going forward in their portfolios. One of the metrics that is a good guide for investors to decide whether to invest in Small Caps or Mid Caps (especially Small Caps) is NIFTY Small Cap 100/NIFTY 50 ratio. This gives and idea of how much Small Cap segment is quoting at a premium compared to Large Caps.
Diversification - the new Buzz Word
posted on 26 September 2024 by Sunil Jhaveri
DIVERSIFICATION is the buzz word in investing world. This word connotes different meaning to different investors. What are different ways of diversifications and what diversification can add value to an investor’s portfolio
Post Fed Rate cut can Financials be the new Defensive Play?
posted on 19 September 2024 by Sunil Jhaveri
Post most rate cuts and Fed pivot, history has shown that there have been recessions and major drawdowns in markets. In 2001, NIFTY fell 35%, in 2007, it went up initially to drop 60% thereafter in 2008. Currently domestic demand is soft and valuations are stretched. So far, Indian market rally has been broad based. All segments like Large, Mid and Small Caps have performed well. Now, it is time to be cautious and use a FUNNEL (Top Down) to filter where to invest. Also, there should be rotational change in both Market Caps and Sectors.
Signals given by some of the Asset Classes for the US Economy
posted on 02 September 2024 by Sunil Jhaveri
Some of the asset classes which are leading indicators of market macros are: Dollar Index / 10 Year UST / Gold/ Nasdaq Composite. 3 out of 4 have made decisive moves – 10 Year UST and Gold on the upside and dollar index on the downside. Only one which is hovering in a narrow range is Nasdaq Composite which will, in all probability make its decisive downward move once rate cuts happen and recession sets in thereafter.
Time to Look Beyond Equities
posted on 23 August 2024 by Sunil Jhaveri
There is all together another story brewing in different global economies, especially in the biggest economy viz. the USA. Post COVID, to avoid recession, US Govt and Fed started printing money and resorted to aggressive fiscal stimulus that created inflation in different asset classes like equities, real estate, cryptos and inflation in general. To control this spiraling inflation, Fed had to resort to aggressive rate hikes from near zero to 5% + in a short span of 12 to 18 months. Spiraling US debt + high interest costs have now come to haunt the US economy. During the same period there have been many wars in different parts of the world like Ukraine/Russia & middle eastern region.
Suggestions for Big - Bold GST Reforms
posted on 31 July 2024 by Sunil Jhaveri
Recent data on government revenue sources has unveiled a striking disparity in India's tax system. While income tax constitutes a significant 19% of government revenues, only a small fraction of India's population contributes to this substantial portion. This revelation necessitates a critical examination of the current fiscal structure and its far-reaching implications for the nation's economic growth and social equity.
Suggestions for Big - Bold Tax Reforms
posted on 30 July 2024 by Sunil Jhaveri
Recent data on government revenue sources has unveiled a striking disparity in India's tax system. While income tax constitutes a significant 19% of government revenues, only a small fraction of India's population contributes to this substantial portion. This revelation necessitates a critical examination of the current fiscal structure and its far-reaching implications for the nation's economic growth and social equity.
Valuation Does Matter
posted on 13 March 2024 by Sunil Jhaveri
As I am penning this note at 2:45 pm on 13th March 2024, Markets have corrected by 1.50% in Large Caps and by almost 5% in Small Caps and 4% in Mid Caps. These tables will look quite different if I would have incorporated data based on today’s market corrections. But I did not wish to wait till tomorrow to release this note for the benefit of the readers and investors. Market Regulator has cracked down on some of the operators in Small Cap space and given warning to AMCs to take corrective steps so that Investors do not suffer due to froth building up in this pace. Many AMCs have stopped inflows in their Small and Mid Cap schemes based on this. This causing further panic and adding fuel to fire.
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